Morgan Stanley downgrades Airbnb on travel demand concerns, see shares falling the next 12 months

After a tough year, Morgan Stanley sees even more downside for Airbnb . Analyst Brian Nowak downgraded the short-term home rental stock to underweight from equal weight. He also slashed his price target to $80 per share from $110. The new target implies downside of 14% from Tuesday’s closing level of $93.12. Nowak pointed to potentially slowing active listings growth over the next few years as a key risk for the stock. He noted: “While active listings have grown at a 12% ’18-’22 [compound annual growth rate], we see this slowing to a 7% ’22-’25 CAGR going forward due to scale and law of large numbers.” “Our supply model combined with reported nights booked enable us to calculate that ABNB is currently running at 35% occupancy in ’22, consistent with ’21 (35%) but up from 32% pre-COVID,” Nowak said. “The bottom line is we think we were previously too optimistic about forward demand; we now reduce our ’23/’24 nights booked by 5%/12%.” Slowing listings also makes Morgan Stanley’s bear case on the stock more likely, the analyst said. He noted that the stock could fall as low as $60 per share, which would be 35.6% below Tuesday’s close. “Our model for decelerating supply speaks to how it is increasingly important for ABNB to drive demand growth through higher occupancy and/or more nights available per listing,” Nowak said. “The company also has to do this while facing the risk that the next 1.5mn listings (on top of the current 6.2mn) may be of lower quality, or in less desirable travel locations.” Airbnb shares have been under pressure in 2022, dropping more than 44%. Last month, the company reported better-than-expected third-quarter results, but the stock fell on the back of lackluster revenue guidance for the fourth quarter. Earlier this year, sources told CNBC that Airbnb was closing its domestic business in China. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.